Nifty close 11263: Market has been highly volatile throughout the week and we know the reasons behind it. The rising tension of Lok-Sabha election, the international geo political problem between USA and IRAN and obviously the trade war.
This week the index started with a negative note but eventually market recover from that fall, and gained approx 130 points. The 100DMA was the technical reason behind the pullback. But as this juncture where will be the market heading?
Hourly Technical: The Hourly time frame suggests a clear uptrend is in place but just above the latest price level – there is the presence of 100SMA (Presently at approx.11419.80) and 200SMA (Presently at approx. 11542.91). So we can expect on the upside, there are two major resistance levels which might act as resistance. Apart from that, 11500 level is the technical as well as a psychological resistance level and should not ignore it.
Technical indicators are pretty much strong at this moment and this is because of the swift of up move. RSI is above 70, Stochastic is also trading at its overbought level, ADX is above 30 and the CCI indicator hovering at 140 level.
Overall, the short term trend is up but there could be a counter trend on the next trading session if price does not sustain above the 100 and 200SMA.
Daily Technical: On the daily chart price is trading below the 50 SMA (approx.11467.10) and the Mid Bollinger (approx 11512.29) is also above the price. So this two might create resistance in case the up move continues. As per the price action 11575 and above is the sellers’ territory so we must plan our trade accordingly.
Just like the price indicators are also pulling back from their oversold level. RSI is above 40, Stochastic is also approx same level, ADX is at 30 level and the CCI is below zero level.
So, there is no bullish sign as of now from the indicator side. But once price manage to sustain above the 11500 level, further up move might take place. In case price fall back from this juncture 11200 would be its immediate support.
Weekly Technical: On the weekly char, price took support from the mid Bollinger line (Presently at approx.11209.24) and pulled back. Short term Moving Averages are trading below the price but longer ones are below the price. So on the longer time frame this red (previous week’s candle) and green candles are looking nothing but a normal correction.
Indicators are trading at their normal level. RSI is above 55, Stochastic is also above 60, ADX is at 15 level and the CCI indicator is at just above its 20 level.
So as of now from the indicator side, there is no such solid confirmation. In case price slides below 11100 level or on the upside, breaks above 11850 there could be a good movement with momentum.
For now, the support would be at 11200 level and the resistance is at 11750 level.
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