The Joys of Compounding by Gautam Baid
Read More History And Fewer Forecasts
Uncertainty and randomness are two things that humans despise. As a result, we attempt to make predictions. We make forecasts and projections about the economy and businesses' future.
But predicting is pointless because the world is far too complex, and things do not move in silos and, like many other things in life, the markets move in cycles. There are a few factors that have a direct impact on the outcome of every decision you make. One factor is linked to other factors, resulting in a network of factors.
There are most likely millions of moving parts that could influence your decision. Each has a different magnitude, but we have a skewed perspective and can only see the first five. The current COVID-19 pandemic appears to be a never-ending battle.
When we look back in history, we see that humanity has survived great atrocities. The swine flu, the Black Death, and other threats In the future, humanity will learn from COVID-19 and better manage viruses and pandemics. Faster and more accurate contact tracing, faster vaccine development, and we will never run out of ventilators and masks.
So, through this the author is emphasizing that in today’s disruptive world, forecasting doesn’t makes sense, rather one should learn from history.