Role of Luck, Chance, Serendipity, And Randomness
Stock market investing is an activity in which luck plays a significant role.
The author takes the opportunity to acknowledge the significant role of luck in his investing journey. Luck was responsible for his multiple big winners during the 2014 bull market in India. At the time, he had hardly any investing expertise to speak of, but still, within his portfolio, Avanti Feeds went from ₹ 500 to ₹ 2,410 (~382 percent), Gati went from ₹ 60 to ₹ 275 (~359 percent), Symphony went from ₹ 700 to ₹ 1,200 (~71 percent), VST Tillers went from ₹ 800 to ₹ 1,740 (~118 percent), Ajanta Pharma went from ₹ 650 to ₹ 1,350 (~108 percent), Mayur Uniquoters went from ₹ 230 to ₹ 440 (~91 percent), Astral Poly Technik went from ₹ 250 to ₹ 400 (60 percent), and Atul Auto went from ₹ 350 to ₹ 600 (~71 percent).
With the exception of Gati, all of these stocks were purchased on borrowed conviction from some intelligent-sounding discussion on ValuePickr, a prominent investing blog in India. The primary reason for his purchase of all of these stocks was his allegedly brilliant personal belief that because these stocks had delivered fantastic returns during the previous five years of tough economic conditions, they should logically deliver even better returns during an economic recovery. In terms of Gati, he naively assumed that if e-commerce grew rapidly in India, Gati's courier business would do well. He didn't even look into the company's earnings quality.