There are three ingredients for success:
If you have enough aggressiveness at the right time, you don’t need that much skill.
Good timing in investing can come from diligently assessing where we are in a cycle, and then doing the right thing as a result.
Six main components (or three pairings) to the formula for investment success:
1.Pair 1: Cycle Positioning and Asset Selection
2.Pair 2: Aggressiveness and Defensiveness
3.Pair 3: Skill and Luck
An investor needs to question whether they have the skill required to improve on the market’s performance through active decision making, or should give up on doing so and invest passively in index funds, settling for market performance.