Mastering The Market Cycle
Module Units
- 1. Introduction
- 2. Why Study Cycles?
- 3. The Nature Of Cycles
- 4. The Economic Cycle
- 5. Government Involvement With The Economic Cycle
- 6. The Cycle In Profits
- 7. The Pendulum Of Investor Psychology
- 8. The Cycle In Attitudes Toward Risk
- 9. The Credit Cycle
- 10. The Distressed Debt Cycle
- 11. The Real Estate Cycle
- 12. Putting It All Together–The Market Cycle
- 13. How To Cope With Market Cycles
- 14. Cycle Positioning
- 15. Limits On Coping
- 16. The Cycle In Success
- 17. The Future Of Cycles
- 18. The Essence Of Cycles
Why Study Cycles?
When we apply some insight regarding cycles, we can increase our bets and place them in more aggressive investments when the odds are in our favor. We can take money off the table, and increase our defensiveness, when the odds are against us.
It is very easy to achieve average investment performance and it is quite hard to perform above average.
We can most gainfully spend our time studying three areas:
- Trying to know more than others about the “knowable,” the fundamentals of industries, companies, and securities.
- Being disciplined as to the appropriate price to pay for participation in those fundamentals.
- Understanding the investment environment we are in, and deciding how to strategically position our portfolios for it.
Investors need to calibrate between aggressive and defensiveness. When we are getting value cheap, we should be aggressive. When value is expensive, we should pull back.
Two primary types of risk:
1. The likelihood of permanent capital loss
2. Opportunity risk, the likelihood of missing out on potential gains
The ideas below are from the memo Risk Revisited Again from June 8, 2015, they might help you understand and cope with risk.
Risk is all about uncertainty. Even though many things can happen, only one will happen.
Related Modules
![](https://d24uab5gycr2uz.cloudfront.net/uploads/other_pic/hfmFxcXvoW.jpg)
Jeremy Silva
Jeremy Silva lives near San Francisco with his wife and son. He is a writer, blogger, and personal investor. He is passionate about education, personal development, project management, and investing. His blog has over 100 book summaries on many topics including investing, self-help, and business. You can click on the link to read some interesting book summaries on Jeremy’s website (https://jsilva.blog/book-summaries/).
Copy the URL
Leaderboard
# | Name | Score |
---|