Appreciating The Role Of Luck
The truth is, much in investing is ruled by luck.
Howard considers the book "Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, one of the most important books an investor can read.
Outcomes that hinge on random events should be viewed differently from those that do not.
When things go right, luck looks like skill.
Investors are right and wrong all the time for the wrong reason.
A good decision is one that is optimal at the time it was made when the future is unknown. Thus, correct decisions are often unsuccessful and vise vera. The quality of a decision is not determined by the outcome.