Unknown Market Wizards
Chris Camillo: Neither
The market analysis methodologies could be divided into either fundamental or technical or a combination of both. To succeed, a trader must find his own market approach. Chris Camillo’s approach is neither fundamental nor technical. He has effectively created a completely new class of market analysis and trading termed “social arbitrage.”
Camillo observed social trends and cultural shifts in everyday life to develop his trading method. To expand his scope of spotting these trends, Camillo founded TickerTags. It is a company whose software allows monitoring and computing word combinations (he termed as “tags”) on social media that are important to specific stocks.
He was incredibly successful in this approach for about a decade before TickerTags came into existence. The key lesson was that being observant and highly tuned to new behavioural trends, both in your everyday life and in social media, could be a source for uncovering trading opportunities.
He suggests not to get confused between a losing trade and a bad trade. They necessarily are not the same thing. Another piece of advice is not to listen to anybody when in a position. One must stick to his own approach and avoid being influenced by conflicting opinions.
Camillo’s most regretful trade was one in which he got swayed by contradictory market opinions into liquidating two-thirds of his call position at a loss. Later, he found that his original trade assumption was fully validated.
Patience to wait for the right opportunity is a valuable trait. It is also one of the most challenging qualities to acquire. Camillo believes that he would have done far better if he confined his activity to his high-conviction trades.
Camillo’s problem is that the high-conviction trades he favours may come along only once every couple of months or even less frequently. He finds it difficult to spend four hours a day searching for trades and then waiting for months to place a trade. Nonetheless, Camillo is mindful of the importance of being more patient and believes his improvement in this regard over the years has enhanced his trading success. Not all trades are the same. As in Camillo’s case, many traders may have trades that differ in their anticipated probability of success. There is a middle ground between taking all prospective trades generated by a trader’s specific methodology and taking only perceived high-probability trades. Alternatively, a trader can vary the position size, taking larger positions on higher-probability trades and smaller positions on lower-probability trades.
Confidence is one of the best barometers of future trading success. The Market Wizards tend to be highly confident in their ability to continue to win in the markets, and Camillo certainly fits this description. He exhibits confidence in his method and firmly believes that it will provide him with a clear edge. As well as he has done so far, he expects to do even better in the future. One way traders can discover their chance of success is to measure their confidence level.
Camillo made his first trade at the age of 14. It is found that many of the highly successful traders developed their interest in trading at an early age. Traders who fit this profile probably have a better chance of success. Successful traders love what they do. Camillo succeeded because he found an approach that related well with his natural interests and passions